Shortcut to Nowhere: Demystifying Deep Spurious Regression

Real-world regression often exhibits shortcuts: attributes that are spuriously correlated with continuous targets in training, yet unreliable under deployment shifts; regressing targets using such shortcuts may fail catastrophically at test time. Existing studies on spurious correlations focus primarily on classification, where labels are categorical and groups are naturally defined. However, many real-world tasks require continuous prediction, where hard label boundaries or discrete group-label pairs do not exist. We define Deep Spurious Regression (DSR) as learning from regression data with attribute-label confounding, addressing continuous spurious correlations, and generalizing to all attribute-label combinations at test time. Motivated by the intrinsic difference between classification and regression shortcuts, we propose to exploit the similarity among spurious attributes in both label and feature spaces, thereby accounting for nearby targets and related groups while calibrating both label and learned feature distributions across attributes. Extensive experiments on common real-world DSR datasets that span computer vision, environmental sensing, and large language model (LLM) regression verify the superior performance of our strategies. Our work fills the gap in benchmarks and techniques for studying spurious correlations in continuous prediction.

GlucoFM: A Dual-Stream Foundation Model for Continuous Glucose Monitoring

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) provides a dense view of daily metabolic physiology, yet existing generic time-series and CGM-specific foundation models often encode glucose traces as entangled single-stream sequences, leaving the distinct temporal structure of glycemic dynamics only implicitly modeled. We present GlucoFM, a lightweight CGM foundation model that aligns irregular recordings to a 24-hour chronological grid, preserves observation masks, and decomposes glucose dynamics into slow physiological state and transient event streams, capturing low-frequency glycemic baselines and short-term deviations that may reflect acute physiological responses or sensor artifacts. GlucoFM is pretrained on 109,066 hours of unlabeled CGM recordings from 477 subjects with two complementary objectives: masked contextual latent prediction over fused daily representations and temporal dynamics prediction over state and event streams. Across four diverse cohorts and seven clinical prediction tasks, GlucoFM achieves the strongest subject-disjoint linear-probing performance among evaluated baselines, improving average PR-AUC by 4.1 points over the best CGM-specific foundation model. Its gains are most pronounced on core metabolic outcomes, leading PR-AUC on all diabetes-risk and $β$-cell dysfunction tasks and on 3 of 4 insulin-resistance tasks. GlucoFM also achieves the best overall cross-dataset transfer performance and strong few-shot adaptation among evaluated methods, and consistent gains when aggregating multiple days for subject-level prediction, highlighting physiology-aware decomposition as an effective inductive bias for transferable CGM representation learning.

WorldMemArena: Evaluating Multimodal Agent Memory Through Action-World Interaction

Multimodal large language models are increasingly deployed as long-horizon agents, where memory must do more than recall: it must track an evolving world, revise what has gone stale, and surface the right evidence at decision time. Existing benchmarks measure recall over static dialogue, collapse memory into a single end-of-task accuracy, and reduce visual observations to captions, leaving us unable to localize failures to writing, maintenance, retrieval, or use. The rise of agent harnesses that author their own memory sharpens this gap, since we have no principled way to compare hand-designed pipelines with self-managing alternatives. To close these gaps, we formulate multimodal agent memory as an Action-World Interaction Loop with an observable four-stage lifecycle, and instantiate it in WorldMemArena: 400 multi-session multimodal tasks spanning Lifelong Evolution (evolving personal and task states) and Agentic Execution (memory from real observations, actions, and feedback), annotated with gold memory points, updates, distractors, and evidence chains for stage-level diagnosis. This enables the first head-to-head comparison of long-context, manually designed (RAG and external memory systems), and harness-based memory agents. Results show that: (1) better memory writing and storage do not guarantee better performance; (2) multimodal memory still struggles to fully use visual evidence; (3) systems are unstable across domains and degrade on realistic agentic trajectories; and (4) harness memory is more flexible but remains costly and less reliable.

Towards a General Intelligence and Interface for Wearable Health Data

While ubiquitous wearable sensors capture a wealth of behavioral and physiological information, effectively transforming these signals into personalized health insights is challenging. Specifically, converting low-level sensor data into representations capable of characterizing higher-level states is difficult due to high phenotypic diversity and variation in individual baseline health, physiology, and lifestyle factors. Moreover, collecting wearable data paired with health outcome annotations is laborious and expensive, and retrospective annotation remains practically unfeasible, contributing to a scarcity of data with high-quality labels. To overcome these limitations, we propose a foundation model for wearable health that is pretrained on more than one trillion minutes of unlabeled sensor signals drawn from a large cohort of five million participants. We demonstrate that the joint scaling of model capacity and pretraining data volume leads to systematic improvements in performance, as evaluated on a diverse set of 35 health prediction tasks, spanning cardiovascular, metabolic, sleep, and mental health, as well as lifestyle choices and demographic factors. We find that this population scale representation unlocks label-efficient few-shot learning and generative capabilities for robust daily metric estimation. To further leverage this learned representation, we deploy a classroom of LLM agents to autonomously search the space of downstream predictive heads built on the model embeddings, showing broad performance improvements that increase with LLM model capacity. Finally, we show how integrating these downstream predictors into a Personal Health Agent can support model responses that are more relevant, contextually aware, and safe, and we validate this via 1,860 ratings from a cohort of clinicians.

TimeSRL: Generalizable Time-Series Behavioral Modeling via Semantic RL-Tuned LLMs -- A Case Study in Mental Health

Longitudinal passive sensing enables continuous health prediction, yet models often fail under cross-dataset distribution shifts. Traditional ML overfits cohort-specific artifacts, while Large Language Models (LLMs) struggle to reason reliably over long, heterogeneous time-series. We introduce TimeSRL, a two-stage LLM framework that routes predictions through an explicit semantic bottleneck. The model first abstracts raw signals into high-level natural language, then predicts behavioral outcomes from these abstractions alone. This forces the model to reason over semantic concepts that we argue generalize better than raw numbers. We optimize this process end-to-end using Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), learning outcome-aligned abstractions without gold intermediate annotations. Instantiated on mental-health prediction, TimeSRL achieves state-of-the-art performance on a benchmark designed to stress-test cross-cohort generalization under a rigorous leave-one-dataset-out (LOSO) protocol, reducing mean absolute error (MAE) over strong non-LLM ML and LLM baselines by 3.1--10.1% and 9.5--44.1% for anxiety, and 3.2--9.6% and 27.4--57.6% for depression (all $p$s<0.05). TimeSRL significantly outperforms prior methods in cross-benchmark transfer across different sensing pipelines, rivaling its own within-domain performance without target-domain fine-tuning. These results demonstrate that semantic abstractions are reusable and point to a new direction for generalizable behavior modeling via RL-tuned LLMs.

Auditing Agent Harness Safety

LLM agents increasingly run inside execution harnesses that dispatch tools, allocate resources, and route messages between specialized components. However, a harness can return a correct, benign answer over a trajectory that accesses unauthorized resources or leaks context to the wrong agent. Output-level evaluation cannot see these failures, yet most safety benchmarks score only final outputs or terminal states, even though many violations occur mid-trajectory rather than at termination. The central question is whether the harness respects user intent, permission boundaries, and information-flow constraints throughout execution. To address this gap, we propose HarnessAudit, a framework that audits full execution trajectories across boundary compliance, execution fidelity, and system stability, with a focus on multi-agent harnesses where these risks are most pronounced. We further introduce HarnessAudit-Bench, a benchmark of 210 tasks across eight real-world domains, instantiated in both single-agent and multi-agent configurations with embedded safety constraints. Evaluating ten harness configurations across frontier models and three multi-agent frameworks, we find that: (i) task completion is misaligned with safe execution, and violations accumulate with trajectory length; (ii) safety risks vary across domains, task types, and agent roles; (iii) most violations concentrate in resource access and inter-agent information transfer; and (iv) multi-agent collaboration expands the safety risk surface, while harness design sets the upper bound of safe deployment.

Diversity Collapse in Multi-Agent LLM Systems: Structural Coupling and Collective Failure in Open-Ended Idea Generation

Multi-agent systems (MAS) are increasingly used for open-ended idea generation, driven by the expectation that collective interaction will broaden the exploration diversity. However, when and why such collaboration truly expands the solution space remains unclear. We present a systematic empirical study of diversity in MAS-based ideation across three bottom-up levels: model intelligence, agent cognition, and system dynamics. At the model level, we identify a compute efficiency paradox, where stronger, highly aligned models yield diminishing marginal diversity despite higher per-sample quality. At the cognition level, authority-driven dynamics suppress semantic diversity compared to junior-dominated groups. At the system level, group-size scaling yields diminishing returns and dense communication topologies accelerate premature convergence. We characterize these outcomes as collective failures emerging from structural coupling, a process where interaction inadvertently contracts agent exploration and triggers diversity collapse. Our analysis shows that this collapse arises primarily from the interaction structure rather than inherent model insufficiency, highlighting the importance of preserving independence and disagreement when designing MAS for creative tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/Xtra-Computing/MAS_Diversity.

CoDaS: AI Co-Data-Scientist for Biomarker Discovery via Wearable Sensors

Scientific discovery in digital health requires converting continuous physiological signals from wearable devices into clinically actionable biomarkers. We introduce CoDaS (AI Co-Data-Scientist), a multi-agent system that structures biomarker discovery as an iterative process combining hypothesis generation, statistical analysis, adversarial validation, and literature-grounded reasoning with human oversight using large-scale wearable datasets. Across three cohorts totaling 9,279 participant-observations, CoDaS identified 41 candidate digital biomarkers for mental health and 25 for metabolic outcomes, each subjected to an internal validation battery spanning replication, stability, robustness, and discriminative power. Across two independent depression cohorts, CoDaS surfaced circadian instability-related features in both datasets, reflected in sleep duration variability (DWB, ρ= 0.252, p < 0.001) and sleep onset variability (GLOBEM, ρ= 0.126, p < 0.001). In a metabolic cohort, CoDaS derived a cardiovascular fitness index (steps/resting heart rate; ρ= -0.374, p < 0.001), and recovered established clinical associations, including the hepatic function ratio (AST/ALT; ρ= -0.375, p < 0.001), a known correlate of insulin resistance. Incorporating CoDaS-derived features alongside demographic variables led to modest but consistent improvements in predictive performance, with cross-validated ΔR^2 increases of 0.040 for depression and 0.021 for insulin resistance. These findings suggest that CoDaS enables systematic and traceable hypothesis generation and prioritization for biomarker discovery from large-scale wearable data.

MANSION: Multi-floor lANguage-to-3D Scene generatIOn for loNg-horizon tasks

Real-world robotic tasks are long-horizon and often span multiple floors, demanding rich spatial reasoning. However, existing embodied benchmarks are largely confined to single-floor in-house environments, failing to reflect the complexity of real-world tasks. We introduce MANSION, the first language-driven framework for generating building-scale, multi-floor 3D environments. Being aware of vertical structural constraints, MANSION generates realistic, navigable whole-building structures with diverse, human-friendly scenes, enabling the development and evaluation of cross-floor long-horizon tasks. Building on this framework, we release MansionWorld, a dataset of over 1,000 diverse buildings ranging from hospitals to offices, alongside a Task-Semantic Scene Editing Agent that customizes these environments using open-vocabulary commands to meet specific user needs. Benchmarking reveals that state-of-the-art agents degrade sharply in our settings, establishing MANSION as a critical testbed for the next generation of spatial reasoning and planning.

SleepLM: Natural-Language Intelligence for Human Sleep

We present SleepLM, a family of sleep-language foundation models that enable human sleep alignment, interpretation, and interaction with natural language. Despite the critical role of sleep, learning-based sleep analysis systems operate in closed label spaces (e.g., predefined stages or events) and fail to describe, query, or generalize to novel sleep phenomena. SleepLM bridges natural language and multimodal polysomnography, enabling language-grounded representations of sleep physiology. To support this alignment, we introduce a multilevel sleep caption generation pipeline that enables the curation of the first large-scale sleep-text dataset, comprising over 100K hours of data from more than 10,000 individuals. Furthermore, we present a unified pretraining objective that combines contrastive alignment, caption generation, and signal reconstruction to better capture physiological fidelity and cross-modal interactions. Extensive experiments on real-world sleep understanding tasks verify that SleepLM outperforms state-of-the-art in zero-shot and few-shot learning, cross-modal retrieval, and sleep captioning. Importantly, SleepLM also exhibits intriguing capabilities including language-guided event localization, targeted insight generation, and zero-shot generalization to unseen tasks. All code and data will be open-sourced.